Exit polls project 120-161 seats for Grand Alliance
Swept by a whirlwind of change, NDA in Bihar seemed headed for a big setback in the State Assembly polls. The exit polls on Saturday projected the ouster of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and installation of a RJD-led Government headed by Tejashwi Yadav.
The third and final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections took place on Saturday with around 55 per cent turnout. Out of the 243-strong Assembly, 78 constituencies went to polls in the final phase.
While all exit polls gave clear edge to the Grand Alliance, the India Today-Axis Exit polls projected 138-161 seats to the Grand Alliance, while Chanakya projected 180 seats to it.
The exit polls forecast serve a grim message to the NDA that there are few takers for Hindutva-driven campaign if the Opposition could flag issues that concerned the common man.
If the exit polls projection comes true on November 10, then it will be a rude shock to the NDA strategists who till one month ago were confident of winning over 200 seats in the 244-member Assembly. After all, only 18 months ago in the Lok Sabha polls, the NDA swept the State winning 39 out of 40 seats and logging in 54 per cent votes as against 29 per cent by the Grand Alliance.
Apart from 15 years of anti-incumbency, Nitish Kumar also faced sabotage from Chirag Paswan, who put up candidates against each and every JD(U) candidates and went to the poll with the sole objective of ousting Nitish Kumar. Throughout the poll campaign, the BJP could not dispel the impression that Chirag was not fighting a proxy battle on its behalf to cut to size Nitish Kumar. In the end, the LJP seemed to walk away with 7-8 per cent votes, which would translate into loss of dozen of seats for the JD(U).
Political circles in Bihar were abuzz with speculation that the BJP wanted Nitish to get far less seats than it so that he himself will not lay claim to the post of Chief Minister on moral ground. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP president JP Nadda did repeatedly claim that Nitish will retain his chair even if his party were to get less seats than the BJP, but their failure to publically chastise Chirag kept the pot of confusion and distrust boiling throughout the poll campaign.
In the end, both the BJP and the JD(U) paid the price as supporters of both the parties tried to sabotage each other on several seats. JD(U) MP from Bhagalpur Ajay Kumar Mandal was heard asking his workers not to vote for the BJP inviting severe tongue-lashing from Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi. He was not the lone leader to play spoilsport for the alliance. Several BJP leaders also tried to sabotage the JD(U) candidates. The confusion was all the more visible on the ground among workers from both the parties.
With Covid-19 causing extreme economic stress among the lower strata of the society and nearly 25 lakh migrant workers returning to Bihar under heart-rending conditions, the burden of anti-incumbency grew that much heavier for the NDA.
Add to that massive unemployment caused by Nitish Kumar’s decision to enforce liquor prohibition, and it was a tailor-made situation for the Opposition to politically exploit by promising a welfare-oriented “ change.”
The exit poll will gladden the heart of former Chief Minister Lalu Prasad, who is incarcerated in a Ranchi prison as a fodder scam convict. Unlike Lalu Prasad, who practiced brazen caste politics, his son Tejashwi Yadav kept the focus squarely on the issue of employment, health, education and development. If M-Y was the campaign slogan for Lalu Prasad for 15 years, then Tejashwi invented the catchy slogan of A to Z, implying he would try to carry every caste and grouping together to make a new Bihar. That was the reason the youth voters rose over the caste lines to support him.
Unlike the divided NDA, the Grand Alliance ran a smooth campaign with few hiccups. The Grand Alliance leaders didn’t react to aggressive Hindutva card played by the Prime Minister and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and stuck to their campaign theme.
Exit polls also show that younger voters who have only heard about the so called “jungle raj” and not lived in it, have overwhelmingly voted for the Grand Alliance. That’s where the NDA poll campaign went totally wrong. The focus on jungle raj didn’t resonate with this class of voters who wanted to embrace the future and move out of the shadow of the past.
Sunday, 08 November 2020 | PNS | New Delhi
