Nudge for a people-centric clean energy transition and decarbonisation for climate goals: A double-edged sword

  Anandajit Goswami

Economic Survey of India of 2024 for the first time has raised a valid concern about the prioritisation process and order of attainment of India’s Climate and Developmental Goals. Chapter 6 of this year’s Economic Survey cited the work of Mike Hulme to make a point that – “It is quite easy to imagine future worlds in which global temperature exceeds 2°C warming which is ‘better’ for human well-being, political stability, and ecological integrity; for example, than other worlds in which – by all means and at all costs – global temperature was stabilized at 1.5°C.” 

This year’s Economic Survey, therefore, highlighted the point that prioritising only the temperature-bound climate goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius without balancing out the developmental costs of such a goal on low-income and developing countries might not be ethical when viewed from the lens of human well-being, political stability and ecological integrity. This is particularly true while considering the work done by Richard Tol in 2024 where he showed that the welfare-equivalent income loss due to a 2.5-degree Celsius warming relative to pre-industrial times is always significantly higher for developing countries.

A focus on income, wealth, equity and distribution goals are equally important for developing countries to create their future resilience to fight the adverse impacts of climate change and global warming. Hence, a blind focus on temperature goals of climate action can often be biased against the equity and distributive justice aspects of developing countries. Therefore, a non-aligned, non-holistic approach and focus on climate action through renewable energy transition can be detrimental to the developmental goals of people in developing countries. This is particularly true because any energy transition from one dominant fuel to another on a national, global, or local scale is inherently a protracted affair as stated by Vaclav Smil in 2014. It might take 50 to 60 years to happen with constant perseverance by generations. A transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is not an exception.

Moreover, often such transitions are marked and fraught by conflicts and knowingly and unknowingly might not be people-centric. A study by Sovacool et. al (2022), of which the author was also a part of, shows that different actors, tactics and outcomes are at interplay for the clean energy transition in seven carbon-intensive regions in Asia, Europe and North America. Based on a data set of 130 case studies, the research shows how tactics (such as litigation or protest) impact outcomes (such as remuneration, policy change, concessions or labour protections) for different fossil fuel to clean energy transitions like solar, wind, hydro and nuclear. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378022000115

The research highlights the importance of actors, nudges by the actors in terms of  tactics like litigations, meetings, protests and national and international institutional responses to national, supra-national and global pressures impact the fossil fuel to clean energy transition. The research through a cultural, sociotechnical and comparative perspective based on the data of 130 case studies proves that goals of people-centric clean energy transition are often refracted through local, sub-national and national institutions catalysed through local mobilisations which are either in support of or opposed to fossil fuel to clean energy transition.

These findings further substantiate Vaclav Smil’s work in 2014 and strengthen the need to have strong social enablers and nudges for a clean energy transition in developing countries to happen which are generally time-consuming and can last for 50 to 60 years. However, while the countries move and transit in such a time-consuming pathway, the wiser strategy can be to reduce energy and material consumption of developing, developed countries with an equitable wealth and income distribution between the developed and developing countries and within developing countries. This in a way can in the long term be useful to create ecological integrity, political stability and equity for fighting the adverse impacts of climate change on poverty and development in future.

Mission Life of India primarily focuses on such a clarion call through an ethical and moral lens which also finds a mention in the Economic Survey of 2024. The global literature on reducing such a demand for energy and material consumption has already been outlined in the “Degrowth Literature” which mentions a steady state of economic growth by progressively reducing emission intensity, resource and material consumption in the growth path.

India which has on average achieved an economic growth rate of 7% – 8% with an emission growth rate of 4% is also on track towards creating a successful example of a country that can “Degrow” while following its “Economic Growth”. However, the long-term success of such a path will only depend on social nudges which can progressively reduce energy and material consumption in the production and demand cycle of economic goods and services of the country. Once such strong nudges to facilitate ecologically friendly behaviour from both supply and demand side are in place, India can attain its Viksit Bharat Goal of 2047 while being a frontrunner in the climate action goals of the world by continuing to be a socially and politically stable country.

(Disclaimer: The writer is an economist and writer; views expressed here are personal)