Sunday, 16 May 2021 | PNS/ Saugar Sengupta/ Kumar Chellappan
The impact of aggressive campaign and massive mobilisation by political parties in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry in the run-up to the Assembly polls are seen as the principal reasons for massive spread of corona in these States and Union Territory.
The judiciary, World Health Organization, and health experts have unequivocally agreed that the election-related mobilisation paved the way for a later day Covid-19 surge. Here is a reality check:
3% positivity rate before Bengal campaign, 31% after elections
With corona cases spiraling up by the day, Bengal health data experts have started questioning whether March-May electoral extravaganza played the main villain in pushing up cases in the State.
According to State Government reports, while in the second week of March when election campaigns had just started the rate of corona infections was just about 3-4 per cent of the total RT-PCR tests done, the figure leaped up to 31 per cent in the first week of May when the election process ended.
“You do not need rocket science to prove that election rallies with thousands of people made a perfect recipe for disaster and the disaster is in front of you to see …Bengal had a pretty controlled affair till the month of March and the cases started jumping up with each electoral phase…,” said Dr Kajalkrisna Dey.
To quote from Bengal Government records, the State had registered a single day spike of 812 cases with the death of two persons on March 27 the first election day. By April 4 the number of daily spike had reached 2,000. By April 11 it had breached 4,000 mark. And then in a week’s time it had more than doubled. In the next one week the total number of daily cases had witnessed a near 100 per cent rise with more than 15,000 cases.
While in the first week of May the figure was hovering around 17,000 the number has crossed 21,000 post Friday, Health Department sources said, adding, however, that the percentage rate of daily spike had come down by a fraction in the past few days to about 30 per cent.
To hammer home their point, the Government health experts said the rate of increase has been higher particularly in the areas that witnessed large rallies: For instance North and South 24 Parganaas, East Midnapore, Howrah, Nadia and Capital Kolkata.
The number of samples tested in the 24 hours intervening Thursday and Friday for the first time exceeded 70,000 (70,473) with the number of active cases going up to 1,28,684. Kolkata and North 24 Parganas have recorded the highest number of 44 deaths. The death toll in the State has also mounted to 12,993 after 136 more people died on Friday.
“In the first wave, we managed to save rural areas of the state but this time the situation is alarming essentially because of rallies and roadshows …the doctors had been repeatedly asking the politicians to avoid large rallies but they would not listen,” which is why we are in such a mess … otherwise Bengal was in a comparatively better situation,” said Dr Sibashis Banerjee.
Criticising the Election Commission for holding elections in 8 phases TMC MP Saugato Roy said, “We asked them to bring it down to 3 or 4 phases because of the pandemic situation but they would not listen …everyone knows why … now the people will have to bear the brunt.”
Congress Lok Sabha leader Adhir Chowdhury too said, “We had asked the poll panel to stop elections after the fourth phase till the situation improved but they did not listen to us.”
In fact it required two strong orders from Madras and Calcutta High Courts for the elections to take steps towards curbing big rallies. But by then the damage had been done, experts said.
Recuperating Kerala relapsed
On February 26, 2021, while then Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora addressed a nationally televised Press meet to announce the poll schedule for the Assembly election to be held in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, and also the Union Territory of Puducherry, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was in a relaxed mood.
Kerala had almost recovered from the Covid-19 cases which shot up during the Onam and Christmas festivals. Minutes before he left for a public meeting at the Capital city to launch the State-wide election campaign of the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front, Minister for health KK Shylaja mailed him the details of the day’s Covid figures.
It read that the State had diagnosed 3,671 new cases while 14 deaths were recorded from across Kerala. The positive rate was 5.41 per cent. The figures, new cases or fatalities, were comparatively lower than the national average and the scenario on that Friday did not warrant any apprehension, member of the task force had told him.
On February 27, there were 3,792 new cases diagnosed in Kerala while the death figures stood at 18. The Chief Minister asked the people in the State not to violate the protocols and guidelines prescribed by the Government during the campaign. It is not known whether the message has gone down well with the people.
On March 15, the number of new patients had come down to 1,054 while the fatalities reported in that day stood at 11. “Since then the flood gates were opened and there was no looking back. While election campaign peaked, all leaders cutting across party lines threw the protocols to the winds and that’s why we are in a grave situation as on today,” said Dr Rajeeve, physician, who leads the rapid response team of medical doctors and health workers in Ernakulam district. He said the open violation of the dos and don’ts has resulted in the triple lockdown of the district and extension of lockdown in the State.
Dr D Reghu, head of the department of pathology, Government Homeopathy College, Trivandrum fully agreed with Dr Rajeeve. “There should have been stringent regulations in place. The leaders themselves should have set an example to the followers and cadres by observing these guidelines with diligence,” said Dr Reghu, who is the secretary of Arogya Baharati.
The figures for March 30 showed 2,389 new cases with 16 deaths and TPR (Test positivity ratio) of four percent marked the arrival of Covid’s second wave in the State. The festival of democracy came to a close on April 6 while the festivities of Vishu ended on April 15.
“The balance sheet for April 15 read 8,126 new cases, 20 deaths and TPR of 13 percent. Since then it was a north-bound journey,” said Dr Madhu, senior Government Physician at Ernakulam. He is of the view that the Government and the ECO should have decided to postpone the polls till the pandemic subsided.
TN contained virus, polls unleashed it
Tamil Nadu has seen both the extremes of the pandemic Covid-19 during the last year. The State succeeded in controlling the transmission of the pandemic in the initial days when delegates of Tablighi Jamaat congregation held at New Delhi returned to Tamil Nadu in the first week of March 2020. Though the pandemic peaked by mid-2020 the total lockdown, had helped the authorities in bringing down the number of newly diagnosed cases from 40,000 in mid-2020 to below the 500 marks by February 2021.
The day the Chief Election Commissioner announced the poll schedule for the State, Tamil Nadu had logged 481 new cases with five deaths. The State had 4,046 active patients undergoing treatment for Covid-19.
Dr C V Krishnaswamy, eminent physician, who had been monitoring the “progress” of the Covid-19 curve from day one itself, had declined to make any comment when the poll dates were announced. “This is not the ideal time to hold the election in Tamil Nadu. But I do not know the nitty gritty of politics and you may kindly leave me alone,” Dr Krishnaswamy had told The Pioneer on that day.
On March 14, the State diagnosed 759 new persons with pandemics. There were four deaths recorded from all over the State with test positivity rate of 1.13 per cent. By March 21, the number of new persons diagnosed with Covid-19 rose to 1,289 with 9 fatalities. Since then there was no going back in Tamil Nadsu. By March 28, the figures read 2.194 new cases, 11 deaths and TPR 2.58 per cent. Campaigning was approaching the peak as face masks had altogether disappeared and there were no social distancing norms.
Data provided by the Directorate of Health and Preventive Medicine in subsequent days showed a steady and speedy hike in the transmission of the pandemic. While on April 6, there were 3,645 new cases and 15 deaths, the TPR rose to 4.54.
By April 20, the figure for new cases neared the 11,000 mark (10,986 to be precise) and 48 deaths were logged. The TPR was 11.07 percent. On May 7, the State saw the number of new patients reaching 26,465 with 197 deaths and 18.21 per cent TPR.
Since May 9, the State has declared total lockdown which has been extended to May 24. “It was the peak of callousness and irresponsibility that made the authorities go ahead with the election. The free-for-all campaign in Tamil Nadu was not unknown to the authorities in the State. They should not have gone ahead with the poll at this juncture,” said Dr T Jacob John, a renowned virologist who headed the Christian Medical College Vellore.
He also blamed the Kumbh Mela for the hike in pandemic cases. “I do not know how many persons from Tamil Nadu made it to Kumbh Mela but there are thousands who went to the ritual from Karnataka and the result is there to see,” said Dr Jacob John.
The virologist was of the view that had the authorities taken enough precautions the pandemic would not have reached this level in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. “If you had the option to put the election on hold, you could have done that. Otherwise, be strict and stringent with the people,” said Dr John.
Puducherry sees 60 times jump
On February 26, when the Election Commission of India announced the schedule of Assembly polls, the Union Territory of Puducherry recorded just 29 Covid-19 cases and zero death. The total caseload stood 39,669 and the death figure at 667.
Ten and a half weeks down the line, the UT has seen 60 times jump in corona cases. The UT is recording at an average of 1,800 new cases and 25 deaths every day during the last week.
Puducherry has seen more than 60-time rise in the number of cases during this period, the better part of which was in the throes of aggressive poll campaigning. The poll in the UT took place on April 6.
While it’s true that on April 6, the State was relatively safe from the scourge of corona, but the data were misleading. The UT recorded no fatality on that date and the caseload on that day was just around 225. But the bomb exploded after the polls when infections began to spread. In the last one week, the number of new infections has grown by an average of 2.4 per cent every day and the case fatality ratio is 1.4 percent, way ahead of country’s average of around 1.2 per cent.
Poll fever changed it all in Assam
Assam lived with little trace of coronavirus till the electioneering picked up and leaders descended on the State from all parts of the country amid massive mobilisation of people and resources on the ground.
When the poll schedule was announced on February 26, the State recorded just 34 cases and one death in a 24-hour period. People lived without any fear of Covid, which was just beginning to show an uptick in other parts of the country in the early second week of February. But that was it. The poll fever changed it all.
The campaigns, which directly and indirectly, involved tens of thousands of people on a daily basis, provided corona the perfect manure for growth. On April 6 when the three-phase poll ended, Assam was still recording a two-digit caseload (92), but the virus had spread far and wide during the six-seven week of campaigning. With every passing of day more and more cases began to surface and the death count also rose proportionately.
The State is witnessing 4,000-plus cases and 75 deaths per day during the last one week. There will be few instances of such multiplication of cases in any other parts of the country.
For example take the case of Maharashtra, the worst affected state in the country. On February 26 the State recorded 8,333 cases and 48 deaths. Subsequently, the state recorded nearly 70,000 cases at the peak, which translates into a below nine-time rise. Compare that with Assam’s phenomenal growth of nearly 1,225 per cent, and the impact of poll mobilisation on the spread of corona is crystal clear.
