GUEST COLUMN
Kripa Nautiyal
In recent months, Bangladesh’s relationship with India has faced unprecedented challenges, threatening decades of carefully built diplomatic and economic ties. As Bangladesh grapples with internal political turmoil and shifts in regional alliances, the future of this critical South Asian partnership hangs in the balance.
Historical foundations: From liberation to partnership
The Bangladesh-India relationship is rooted in blood and sacrifice. India’s decisive military intervention in 1971 helped Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) gain independence from West Pakistan after a brutal nine-month war. This shared history created a strong foundation for bilateral relations, with India being the first country to recognise Bangladesh’s independence.
Over subsequent decades, the relationship evolved into strategic partnership. Key milestones included the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty, addressing long-standing water-sharing disputes, and the 2015 Land Boundary Agreement, which resolved a 68-year border dispute by exchanging 162 enclaves.
Trade and economic cooperation flourished, with bilateral trade reaching $15 billion annually by 2023. India extended several lines of credit totaling over $8 billion for infrastructure development in Bangladesh, while Bangladesh became India’s largest trading partner in South Asia.
Maritime cooperation
A notable area of collaboration has been maritime security, with the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) and Bangladesh Coast Guard (BCG) operating under a formal memorandum of understanding. This partnership encompasses several vital aspects, such as both coast guards regularly coordinating the return of fishermen who accidentally cross maritime boundaries, a humanitarian initiative that has continued even during periods of diplomatic tension. In January 2025, 90 fishermen were exchanged at the maritime boundary despite broader political challenges. The MoU between two coast guards facilitates exchange programmes for training, courses, workshops and specialist visits to promote cooperation and knowledge sharing. Collaborative efforts on search and rescue operations, anti-piracy initiatives and pollution control underpin regional maritime security and helps in maritime law enforcement
Violence against Hindu minorities
Among the most disturbing aspects of the crisis was the targeted violence against Bangladesh’s Hindu minority population, which constitutes approximately eight per cent of the country. Human rights organisations documented numerous incidents of Hindu temples being vandalised or destroyed, businesses owned by Hindus looted, and homes set ablaze in several districts across the country. This has immensely angered the Hindu community in India and this may result in disturbing the bonhomie people of both countries enjoyed hitherto. The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council reported that over 200 temples were damaged or destroyed during the height of the unrest. Many Hindu families were displaced from their homes, with some seeking refuge across the border in India’s West Bengal and Tripura States.
“What we witnessed was not random violence but systematic targeting of Hindu communities,” said Rana Dasgupta, General Secretary of the Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council. “In many cases, attackers specifically identified Hindu-owned properties and religious sites.”
Particularly alarming were reports of gender-based violence against Hindu women and girls. Several international human rights organisations documented cases of sexual assault and harassment, with victims often afraid to report crimes to local authorities. These incidents echoed historical patterns of violence against minority women during previous periods of communal unrest in the region.
The targeting of Hindu minorities added another layer of complexity to India-Bangladesh relations, with Indian officials expressing “deep concern” over the treatment of Hindus. Several prominent Indian political leaders across party lines called for stronger protection of minority rights in Bangladesh, with some advocating for expedited refugee status for those fleeing persecution.
The crisis culminated in significant political changes. With the emergence of a new leadership that has adopted a different approach to regional powers, a change of policy towards its neighbour India whose support and sacrifice is the very reason for the birth of Bangladesh may not be in the long-term interest of Bangladesh. It is deplorable that reports of sporadic attacks on Hindu communities in Bangladesh have continued in the post-crisis period, particularly in rural areas which cast doubts on intentions of the present administration’s approach.
Military base attack raises security concerns
Tensions escalated further following the unprecedented attack by a mob on the Bangladeshi Air Force base in Dhaka. This has raised serious concerns about security vulnerabilities in Bangladesh’s military installations. Indian security officials have expressed alarm about the attack’s implications for regional stability as any destabilisation of Bangladesh’s security apparatus has direct implications for India’s northeastern States. The deterioration in law and order may soon compound the security situation further. Bangladesh of late has started blaming India for everything wrong happening in the country so as to clear the interim government of its inadequacy. It will be in the interest of Bangladesh to avoid such a blame game and to instead concentrate on managing the upheaval within the country.
Pakistan factor: The emerging triangle
Recent months have witnessed a notable warming of relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan, traditional rivals since the 1971 war. High-level delegations have exchanged visits, with agreements signed on defense cooperation, intelligence sharing and economic partnership. The growing Bangladesh-Pakistan relationship has created visible unease in New Delhi as there exists a serious chance of spread of Pakistan backed terrorism in Bangladesh. The present interim government in Bangladesh has miserably failed in establishing order within the country and at the moment the situation looks very chaotic.
Economic challenges complicate diplomacy
Bangladesh’s economic situation compounds the diplomatic challenges. Once celebrated as a development success story with consistent GDP growth exceeding six per cent annually, the country now faces its most serious economic test in decades. Foreign exchange reserves have declined from a peak of $48 billion in 2021 to approximately $25 billion currently. Inflation remains stubbornly high at 9.5 per cent, putting pressure on household budgets. The garment industry, which accounts for over 80 per cent of export earnings, has been disrupted by political instability and labour unrest. The International Monetary Fund recently approved a $4.7 billion loan package, but attached stringent conditions requiring fiscal discipline and structural reforms. These economic challenges limit Bangladesh’s diplomatic flexibility and increase the stakes of any disruption to trade relations with India, which remains a critical economic partner despite political tensions. Economic interdependence, may in times to come, act as a moderating force towards normalisation of relationship.
International image: Reputational damage assessment
The recent political crisis and its aftermath have significantly impacted Bangladesh’s international standing. Once praised as a moderate Muslim-majority democracy with impressive development indicators, the country now faces international scrutiny over human rights concerns, democratic backsliding, security vulnerabilities and treatment of religious minorities.
Credit rating agencies have downgraded Bangladesh’s sovereign ratings, citing political instability and economic uncertainty. Foreign direct investment declined by 32 per cent in the last quarter, according to the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority. Tourism, a growing sector before the crisis, has virtually collapsed. Western nations have expressed concern about the direction of Bangladeshi politics, with several countries reviewing their development assistance programs. The United States has imposed targeted sanctions on officials believed to be responsible for human rights abuses, including those involved in violence against Hindu communities. The European Union, which grants Bangladesh preferential trade access under the Everything But Arms (EBA) arrangement, has launched a review process that could potentially lead to the suspension of these benefits, citing concerns about minority protections among other human rights issues.
The path forward: Rebuilding trust and relationships
The Yunus-led interim government faces legitimate governance challenges that cannot be resolved through diversionary foreign policy. Without addressing fundamental issues of law and order, economic stability and administrative competence, external blame-shifting tactics are unlikely to sustain public confidence. The administration’s effectiveness will ultimately be judged on its ability to deliver tangible improvements in citizens’ daily lives rather than on the creation of foreign distractions. Despite the complexity of challenges, it will be in the interest of Bangladesh to initiate action for stabilising relations with India. This could include addressing security concerns including joint efforts to protect vulnerable minority communities and religious sites in border regions, maintaining and expanding economic pragmatism despite political differences, frameworks like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) could provide neutral platforms for engagement, establishing robust legal and security frameworks to protect religious minorities, particularly Hindus, and accountability for past violence would address a major source of tension with India and improve Bangladesh’s international standing. Additionally, the relatively successful model of the coast guard cooperation, which has continued despite political tensions, could be expanded and used as a template for other areas of security collaboration. Maintaining fishermen exchanges and joint exercises regardless of diplomatic climate builds confidence.
For now, both nations appear to be in a period of recalibration, assessing how to preserve core interests and watching emerging regional dynamics carefully. The coming months will reveal whether this relationship, forged in the crucible of Bangladesh’s independence struggle, can evolve to meet the challenges of a new era.
(The author is retired additional director general of Indian Coast Guard and an alumnus of United States Naval War College; views expressed are personal)
